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Julien Brault
Research Officer at the European Investment Fund European Investment Bank Group (CV) Research Interests Financial Economics - Macroeconomics - Economic History |
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Recent Research
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Recent Trends in EU Corporate Demography and Policy : COVID and beyond
We examine recent trends in EU corporate demography and the role of policy responses during the COVID crisis. We compare recent bankruptcy and business creation rates to past trends. Pre-crisis trends were showing declining business creations and rising bankruptcies. After COVID, bankruptcy rates dropped, but recently rose significantly. The crisis had significant negative effects on business creation rates and total EU corporate population. The paper also correlates Member States’ fiscal policy responses to the evolution in corporate demography. These tended to limit bankruptcies rather than foster business creations. Major divergences occur between countries, sectors, and types of firms. The paper underlines the necessity of policy actions supporting business creations. Link
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EU Credit Guarantees before and after the COVID Crisis : Role and Impact
Loan guarantees played a central role in the fiscal response to the Covid-19 recession. A central question is whether they indeed produced the expected positive effects. We review existing empirical evaluations of the impact of loan guarantees, focusing on European Union guarantees between 2002 and 2016. The study confirms the notion that this policy supported the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises and reduced their bankruptcy rates. However, we also identify areas where this tool did not have a significant positive impact. These findings may be useful for the formulation of public policy and for assessing the effectiveness of loan guarantees in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. Link
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The Real Effects of EU Loan Guarantee Schemes for SMEs: a Pan-European Assessment
We provide a pan-European assessment of EU credit guarantees to SMEs. Guaranteed loans are found to positively affect the growth of firms’ assets (by 7 to more than 35%), the share of intangible assets (by one third of the initial share in Italy and the Nordic countries), sales (by 6 to 35%), employment (by 8 to 30%), and lower their probability to default (by 4 to 5%). Link
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The Impact of EU Loan Guarantee Financial Instruments on the Growth and Jobs of SMEs
We investigate the economic effects of guaranteed loans granted under the EU programmes MAP and CIP on SMEs’ growth in Italy, the Benelux and the Nordic countries from 2002 to 2016. Overall, guaranteed loans are found to positively affect the growth in assets (+19.6 percentage points over the two years after the end of the signature year), sales (+14.8 percentage points), employment (+16.9 percentage points) and the share of intangible assets (+1 percentage point). Link
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The contents of this website are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views or policies of the European Investment Bank or European Investment Fund.